Cornucopians feel that the rate of technological growth will outpace the rate of population growth, and that will solve all our problems. Malthusians believe that we've already exceeded the planet's carrying capacity, and if population growth continues unchecked, nothing we invent will be powerful enough to reverse those effects.I finally know what to call myself: I am definitely a Cornucopian (even if those killjoy Malthusians don't mean the term kindly). I am firmly within the camp that says that, no matter how badly industry -- and by extension, technology -- has messed up the planet so far, solutions will be found in the technology of the future. In Abundance, authors Peter H. Diamandis (of X Prize fame) and Steven Kotler (used here as a visible ghostwriter) provide the case for optimism.
I'm just going to quote the book's summary from The New York Times here since they captured it and I'd only be paraphrasing:
His thesis rests on a four-legged stool. The first idea is that our technologies in computing, energy, medicine and a host of other areas are improving at such an exponential rate that they will soon enable breakthroughs we now barely think possible. Second, these technologies have empowered do-it-yourself innovators to achieve startling advances — in vehicle engineering, medical care and even synthetic biology — with scant resources and little manpower, so we can stop depending on big corporations or national laboratories. Third, technology has created a generation of techno-philanthropists (think Bill Gates) who are pouring their billions into solving seemingly intractable problems like hunger and disease. And finally, we have what Diamandis calls “the rising billion.” These are the world’s poor, who are now (thanks again to technology) able to lessen their burdens in profound ways. “For the first time ever,” Diamandis says, “the rising billion will have the remarkable power to identify, solve and implement their own abundance solutions.”The rising billion is really the key here because, for instance, as seen with the rapid spread of cell phones in Africa (helped along by the fact that there was little vested interest in traditional copper wire phone infrastructure), this is one billion consumers who can be quick and early adopters of technology (which, with the economies of scale, is attractive to investors), and with connections to the global economy, they can then pull themselves out of poverty faster than a century of aid efforts have failed to achieve. And we are on the cusp of technology that will help this billion rise, with advances in water purifying, medicine, sanitation, and education. One example that intrigues me is the "techno-toilet": We have known for a hundred years that proper sanitation systems are needed to prevent diseases, but in remote locations with poor water supplies, it is unreasonable to plan a western-style sewer system. As an alternative, this techno-toilet is an affordable and self-contained unit that burns feces (using the feces as its power source), and this is such an efficient process that it generates more energy than it consumes. It can then not only zap urine into clean water and table salt (!), but there is still enough energy left in the system for a family to charge their cell phones and laptops with.
Abundance is full of these examples -- from 100% safe backyard nuclear generators to vertical farms that could provide year-round food supplies for urban centers -- and as the book was written in 2012 (already three years old as I write this) I can only assume that there have been even more advances, with the technology progressively becoming more efficient and affordable all the time. Diamandis is enthusiastic about the future and his views here confirm my own optimism.
On the other hand, having just read Dave Eggers' The Circle, it's interesting that many of the advances that Eggers warns will eventually enslave us, are here presented as exciting breakthroughs. The "Internet of Things" (like a central nervous system for the planet, connecting every thing on earth through "a self-configuring, wireless network of sensors") was a concept that some people found off-putting in The Circle, as was LOC (lab on a chip) technology that will automatically upload all of a person's medical data to the cloud to be analysed for "deeper patterns". Most alarming to me was when Diamandis quoted Google cofounder Larry Page as saying, "Google will be included in people's brains. When you think about something you don't know much about, you will automatically get the information." I don't want any of this! And if I can add one more caveat: I appreciate the concept of raising up the bottom billion and providing them with the building blocks of Diamandis' Abundance Pyramid:
And while I understand that people can't realise their full potential and become, themselves, innovators without having all of these basic needs met, I just want to point out that I live in a community where these needs are indeed all met and yet I know very few innovators. Raise up the bottom billion and how long will it be until you have a billion more people spending their hours on Candy Crush and cat videos?
Yes, Abundance reads like a collection of TED talks, so it might suffer from a degree of gee whiz naiveté, but I remain hopeful for the future of humanity. Yes, technology has led us to where we are (which is unsustainable but a pretty great place from my perch) and technology will lead us to where we need to go.
